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An Iranian nuclear reactor (AP)
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Last update - 00:00 22/05/2008
Is an attack on Iran a big risk?
By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: nuclear program, Iran, U.S.
 

The standard assumption is that a military attack by the United States or Israel to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons would be disastrous for the attackers, and would threaten the stability of the entire Middle East.

Various experts outline doomsday scenarios for such an occurrence, and warn especially of Iran's harsh reaction. Fearing the reaction of the ayatollahs has a paralyzing effect. Even before the first shot has been fired, Iran can credit itself with a success. It created an image of an omnipotent country that will not hesitate to use its power to respond and avenge a military operation against it. This is an impressive psychological achievement.

But a new paper, to be published this month in the U.S. by two well-known experts on the subject, sketches a different and more complex picture. The paper is "The Last Resort," written by Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The main point, notes Dr. Clawson in an interview with Haaretz, is that the success or failure of a military attack depends on many variables, and not just the degree of damage the attack would cause.
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What are these variables?

The type of weapons chosen for the attack - will nuclear or conventional weapons be used? Who attacks - the U.S. or Israel? Will the attack cause serious collateral damage to the surroundings, that is causing a lot of civilian casualties? Will only the nuclear sites be attacked, or other regime targets? After the attack, will President Ahmadinejad announce Iran's departure from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty? If the attack completely destroys Iran's nuclear program that is one thing, but if it does not, that is a different story. Then Iran will be able to continue to develop its nuclear program, and the world will no longer care about that. In short, this is subject that is dependent on many variables.

Nevertheless, what would be deemed a success?

If the attack does destroy the nuclear facilities, and it leads to a broad consensus in Iran that nuclear weapons are dangerous for the future of the regime or the nation. In other words, success or failure is determined by the political result of the military attack. The primary objective of the military option has to be to convince Iran to cease its nuclear program, that it's not worthwhile to continue. Destroying the nuclear facilities is not an end in and of itself; it is merely a means to an end. And therefore it is necessary to create the political conditions that will increase the chances for the success of the attack.

And what will be a possible result of an Israeli attack?

Again, my answer is that it depends. Israel has to create the circumstances in which world public opinion will understand Israel and its motives, even if it regrets the attack.

That's more or less what happened with the attack against the nuclear facility in Syria?

Yes, it is quite similar. Israel benefited from President Assad's hostile attitude to the world, and therefore the international community showed understanding of the Israeli air force's attack. Israel did not have to do much because Assad did the job for it. In this respect, Israel also benefits from Ahmadinejad and his statements. They help Israel present its position to the world and explain the threat it faces.

Do you share the sweeping assessment of most experts that Iran's reaction if attacked will be harsh and painful?

No. Iran's record when it comes to its reactions in the past to attacks against it, or its important interests, is mixed. When the Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan and persecuted the Shi'ite minority there, Iran mobilized military forces on the border and threatened to respond, but in the end it did nothing. The same occurred when the U.S. shot down an Iranian passenger airline in 1988: Iran threatened to avenge the incident, but in the end the exact opposite happened. Not only did Iran not respond, but also the incident hastened its decision to agree to a cease-fire in the war with Iraq for fear that the U.S. was about to join the war on Saddam Hussein's side.

In another incident during the war, Iranian boats attacked an American naval force that set out to mine the Gulf. The U.S. did not expect Iran to react, and was surprised. This did not stop it from sinking half of the Iranian fleet in response.

Iran has lately been threatening that if it is attacked it will close the Straits of Hormuz and block the flow of oil, and thereby damage the world economy. But this is a problematic threat, since it would also affect Iran's friends and supporters, such as China and India. I have no doubt that in such a case, they would be angry at Iran.

But most experts estimate that in the event of an Israeli attack, the Iranians will respond with force and launch Shihab missiles at Israel.

It is possible, but first, the Shihab missiles are not considered particularly reliable. Iran deploys them without having done hardly any significant tests. Second, the Shihab's guidance system is not very accurate. The missile's range of accuracy is up to a kilometer. And finally, Israel's aerial defense system - the Arrow missiles would certainly intercept quite a few Shihab missiles. Moreover, Iran's firing missiles at Israel would enable Israel to respond in a decisive manner.

And what about Hezbollah? They will certainly mobilize to help Iran and respond against Israel.

There is no guarantee that Hezbollah will react automatically. They will make their considerations on the basis of their interests, as they understand them. In Hezbollah, they are very aware of Israel's strength, and of the harsh reaction that may result if Hezbollah attacks.

In other words, you're basically saying that things are not as they seem? That Iran is like a dog whose bark is worse than his bite?

There's something to that. My assessment is that contrary to the impression that has been formed, Iran's options for responding are limited and weak.

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      1.   Conference on the end of Israel? Here goes Iran! 13:24  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      2.   Two agents of an Israeli front organisation peddle war 13:26  |  Clickfool 22/05/08
      3.   LOOOOL 13:26  |  ScotGuy 22/05/08
      4.   U.S. INTELLIGENCE PAPERS 13:36  |  Robert 22/05/08
      5.   Iran is a threat but... 13:43  |  Hastaroth 22/05/08
      6.   Amazingly incomplete analysis-Where`s the thought? 13:46  |  dyinglikeflies 22/05/08
      7.   So the argument is: attack Iran because it`s too peaceful! 13:51  |  Michael 22/05/08
      8.   If you`re so keen to attack Iran, why don`t you do it ? 13:54  |  Stefan 22/05/08
      9.   risk free for who ? 13:56  |  matt 22/05/08
      10.   Clickfool: "the world to do your dirty work for you" 14:09  |  Anti-Clickfool 22/05/08
      11.   BS second best to true military power 14:11  |  ScotGuy 22/05/08
      12.   That`s the nature of israel and usa 14:15  |  Amin 22/05/08
      13.   Go ahead Israel. Iran has been expecting you 14:28  |  Natallie Durson 22/05/08
      14.   Israel run by total morons? 14:29  |  W 22/05/08
      15.   You won`t know till you try 14:36  |  Mary 22/05/08
      16.   The Washington Institute Again 14:41  |  Jane 22/05/08
      17.   W 14:43  |  ScotGuy 22/05/08
      18.   Its easy to start a war, but to finish it? 14:48  |  Mary 22/05/08
      19.   Iran is not in a position to do anything 14:49  |  Rafa 22/05/08
      20.   oh no, not again ! 14:53  |  JJ Burke 22/05/08
      21.   Let`s be serious... 14:56  |  Ariel 22/05/08
      22.   This is exactly why Iran needs nukes. 15:00  |  Michael 22/05/08
      23.   Another opinion 15:02  |  Brett Chatz 22/05/08
      24.   Attack on Iran 15:05  |  Paula 22/05/08
      25.   The liberal dream - WAR ! 15:20  |  steve from raleigh 22/05/08
      26.   Is and attack on Iran a big risk? 15:24  |  jerry 22/05/08
      27.   Amin 15:28  |  Tal 22/05/08
      28.   Take Your Best Shot. 15:29  |  Cool B 22/05/08
      29.   Just put haste behind it, Iran 15:29  |  Mark B. 22/05/08
      30.   Are Their Children at Risk? 15:38  |  Mark of Lewiston 22/05/08
      31.   Between a Mushroom Cloud and Prevention 15:45  |  Brod 22/05/08
      32.   Iran as a formiddable enemy ? :)) 15:47  |  17 22/05/08
      33.   Under this presentOlmert Government IT IS. 15:52  |  The Threadmill 22/05/08
      34.   Who is the Dog?!!? 15:56  |  Marwan 22/05/08
      35.   Pull the other one 15:58  |  Rowan 22/05/08
      36.   For Rafa # 19 16:06  |  Clickfool 22/05/08
      37.   remember the last lebanon war, how got kicked 16:07  |  syed 22/05/08
      38.   This is the EXACT same way Israel thought of Hezbollah 16:15  |  Sadiq M 22/05/08
      39.   Ante up, and lay `em down. 16:17  |  Mike 22/05/08
      40.   Only one way to find out 16:21  |  asif 22/05/08
      41.   But Iran Can Hurt the Gulf States 16:24  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 22/05/08
      42.   That`s one of the dumbest questions... 16:25  |  Tali 22/05/08
      43.   Iran cannot attack back because they know... 16:29  |  Igor D. 22/05/08
      44.   LOL2 16:30  |  cool 22/05/08
      45.   NATALIE DURSON *13 16:31  |  mike 22/05/08
      46.   As the `king` in Shrek 1 said, "Some of you may die, but..." 16:35  |  Robert Blum 22/05/08
      47.   Whose side is the creator on? 16:44  |  Amigo 22/05/08
      48.   IN YOUR DREAMS! : Iran was never directly attacked 16:50  |  UN MAN 22/05/08
      49.   THE HALT LEADING THE BLIND 17:08  |  Brant 22/05/08
      50.   Saying the same thing, but with a smile 17:10  |  Niv 22/05/08
      51.   Natalie and cliclfool, you two should get hitched 17:19  |  royzer 22/05/08
      52.   Yes,such a big risk, that you will never dare to even think of it 17:20  |  Aounist 22/05/08
      53.   Michael, Let`s examine why Iran needs nukes 17:24  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      54.   War mongering Nuttie in safe LA 17:33  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      55.   the think tank style 17:33  |  kaled 22/05/08
      56.   Israel a real as expected! 17:35  |  Roxana from IRAN 22/05/08
      57.   HAHAHAHAHAHAHA 17:35  |  Sunny johnny 22/05/08
      58.   Good post Jane...completely agree 17:36  |  G. 22/05/08
      59.   The Iranian are the best fighters in the world. 17:43  |  Hamid Babajian 22/05/08
      60.   BS by Yossi again 17:49  |  American fed-up 22/05/08
      61.   Smarter move is to get around a table and talk peace 17:52  |  Jalal 22/05/08
      62.   And Iraq was supposed to be easy too 17:53  |  Dave Duncan 22/05/08
      63.   Is an attack on Iran a big risk? 17:58  |  Tammy 22/05/08
      64.   A massive EM Pulse can take out Iran 18:00  |  B (The other one) 22/05/08
      65.   Amin Wrong and Wrong 18:05  |  Joseph 22/05/08
      66.   25 Genuie Tosefta. So you agree Iran needs nukes. OK. 18:07  |  Michael 22/05/08
      67.   Iranian retaliation=Millions of missiles on Israel and Dimona 18:07  |  Aounist 22/05/08
      68.   What is stopping you Hamid from conquering the world? 18:08  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      69.   #28 Hamid 18:11  |  Tali 22/05/08
      70.   Hey Jalal, Iran is already around the conference table, 18:12  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      71.   Roxana, get up off your behinds and remove from power Ayatollahas 18:18  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      72.   Clicktool and the bashers 18:19  |  George 22/05/08
      73.   Michael do not think like a Muslim, no threats, no need for nukes 18:27  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      74.   are you dreaming? wake up! 18:32  |  shirah 22/05/08
      75.   to Guenine Tosefta 18:32  |  Jalal 22/05/08
      76.   Great! No risk, so let`s completely devastate Iran! 18:33  |  Toronto`s Finest 22/05/08
      77.   Aounist, one degree mistake & all the Shahabs will land in Beirut 18:34  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      78.   Was attack on IraK a big risk? 18:35  |  shirah 22/05/08
      79.   To Natallie Durson 18:40  |  Oleg 22/05/08
      80.   high time somebody said it. now go to it. 18:42  |  frenz 22/05/08
      81.   Lets get going then.... 18:45  |  Rich 22/05/08
      82.   Let the Weiners from IDF attack 18:47  |  Concerned individual 22/05/08
      83.   Aounist 18:58  |  Mark Lincoln 22/05/08
      84.   two absent minded professors vs. Shiite mullahs 19:03  |  Dennie 22/05/08
      85.   Nu wipe out Iran already 19:04  |  . 22/05/08
      86.   what a joke,under traitor olmerts leadership,israel is finished 19:06  |  chaim 22/05/08
      87.   US - Beware of the Israeli Tail 19:06  |  American Patriot 22/05/08
      88.   What about radioactive pollution? 19:12  |  AliciaYasmeen 22/05/08
      89.   What are these Bozos on 19:16  |  Chris Linthwaite 22/05/08
      90.   To Natalie Durson - No-one does Israel`s `dirty work` for her 19:20  |  Natalie Durson 22/05/08
      91.   Look who`s promoting this attack - the neocons 19:22  |  thru-other-eyes 22/05/08
      92.   #49, you`re a delusional, paranoid idiot! 19:24  |  DR 22/05/08
      93.   #41 B (the other one) 19:24  |  Chris Linthwaite 22/05/08
      94.   One passage is enough: 19:25  |  Axel 22/05/08
      95.   `Peace` of cake 19:26  |  jjvanka 22/05/08
      96.   # 40 tammy 19:29  |  Axel 22/05/08
      97.   #36 Good joke Hamid 19:36  |  ScotGuy 22/05/08
      98.   Iran is a different country 19:42  |  Javed Akbari 22/05/08
      99.   Blockade Iran no risk at all and would solve world terrorism 19:48  |  Realist 22/05/08
      100.   I THINK IRAN IS READY TO PRODUCE NUKES 19:54  |  indrajaya 22/05/08
      101.   Iran is present at our borders. 19:58  |  Jean Van Daem 22/05/08
      102.   Clickfool 20:00  |  The Gentile 22/05/08
      103.   To Natalie Durson # 13 - `Israel`s dirty work`... 20:10  |  Dolly 22/05/08
      104.   #33 Roxana - Moron 20:11  |  E from T.O. 22/05/08
      105.   Tammy in Toronto 20:12  |  Johnny in Montreal 22/05/08
      106.   I can`t wait... 20:14  |  E from T.O. 22/05/08
      107.   Under the Olmert Government YES it could be 20:21  |  Dagma 22/05/08
      108.   #61 Iran is a different country 20:24  |  E from T.O. 22/05/08
      109.   # 36 Hamid Babajian 20:31  |  James 22/05/08
      110.   I THINK IRAN IS READY TO BE DESTROYED 20:35  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      111.   Aounist, one degree mistake & all the Shahabs will land in Beirut 20:37  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      112.   Aounist, one degree mistake & all the Shahabs will land in Beirut 20:39  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      113.   Remember , You do not know , what Israel 20:40  |  TOMY 22/05/08
      114.   lol 20:50  |  keith brand 22/05/08
      115.   The Imperative of Prevention 20:54  |  Brod 22/05/08
      116.   Fools! 21:08  |  Jim 22/05/08
      117.   Sounds like a cakewalk 21:27  |  Jim 22/05/08
      118.   #2 Clickfool 21:31  |  Jim 22/05/08
      119.   Iranians reactors are the best 21:39  |  Hamid Babajian 22/05/08
      120.   Destroy Iran before they do you. 21:42  |  Harold Van Buskirk 22/05/08
      121.   Dr. Patrick Clawson is dead wrong 21:42  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/05/08
      122.   A war entirely for Jews 21:51  |  Clickfool 22/05/08
      123.   For Harold van Buskirk # 72 21:54  |  Clickfool 22/05/08
      124.   #7 Michael 22:00  |  Jim 22/05/08
      125.   Hamid, please go conquer the world with your reactors 22:04  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      126.   Fortuna, well thought analysis, but Iran leaves Israel no choice 22:12  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      127.   # 79 tomy 22:21  |  Axel 22/05/08
      128.   #9 matt 22:22  |  Jim 22/05/08
      129.   Big Risk! 22:25  |  P. J. Casey 22/05/08
      130.   #10 Anti-Clickfool 22:31  |  Jim 22/05/08
      131.   #10, Anti-Clickfool in Germany... 22:31  |  Silvienne 22/05/08
      132.   #13, Natallie... 22:34  |  Silvienne 22/05/08
      133.   #77, E from TO 22:36  |  Silvienne 22/05/08
      134.   Totally spurious reasoning, Genuine Tosefta # 99 22:49  |  Clickfool 22/05/08
      135.   That`s how it has always been #97, we have never relied on you 22:54  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      136.   #107 You help enemies push us into a corner and the result 23:03  |  Genuine Tosefta 22/05/08
      137.   What if scenerio from a new angle 23:07  |  Gurmit Singh 22/05/08
      138.   Is an attack on Iran a big risk? 23:22  |  Ali 22/05/08
      139.   Fair enough, Genuine Tosefta # 115 23:25  |  Clickfool 22/05/08
      140.   UNBELIEVABLE....... 23:35  |  LJF-CANADA 22/05/08
      141.   Bush is an expert in destroying economies 00:17  |  GOP Tom 23/05/08
      142.   Is an attack on Iran a big risk? 00:40  |  Dean 23/05/08
      143.   There is one way to find out! 00:49  |  IRAN#1 23/05/08
      144.   #13 Natalie Durson 01:14  |  Jim 23/05/08
      145.   for some people oil is still cheap 01:26  |  jess 23/05/08
      146.   Dr. Clawson is not in the real world 02:40  |  john 23/05/08
      147.   To Ariel 02:41  |  Al 23/05/08
      148.   peace with Palestinians= no war with iran 02:53  |  peceneed 23/05/08
      149.   #122 Clickfool Don`t kid yourself! 03:28  |  Jim 23/05/08
      150.   Weak Response From Iran if Attacked - Yes ! 03:28  |  Gary 23/05/08
      151.   #123 Clickfool 04:32  |  Jim 23/05/08
      152.   #126 Genuine Tosefta 05:01  |  Jim 23/05/08
      153.   Is an attack on Iran a big risk? 05:16  |  Guy Gallant 23/05/08
      154.   Chainreaction world and Iranian people reaction are biggest risks 08:56  |  Marco 23/05/08
      155.   Clawson and Eisenstadt` s foolish arguments 09:24  |  Cyrus the Great 23/05/08
      156.   Gallant, It is already past everything you suggest 09:41  |  Genuine Tosefta 23/05/08
      157.   Chain reaction-of course ! 16:25  |  Gary 23/05/08
      158.   For Clickfool, on Israel`s vulerability 19:31  |  Sam C 23/05/08
      159.   Fool me twice... 20:45  |  Daniel Pourkesali 23/05/08
      160.   HAHA! 22:18  |  Paul 23/05/08
      161.   # 153 guy 23:22  |  Axel 23/05/08
      162.   Bigger risk than anybody should take 00:40  |  Ziggy 24/05/08
      163.   To Chaim: 100 Nukes Is Where Its At 00:45  |  Dave Levy 24/05/08
      164.   # 158 sam 00:47  |  Axel 24/05/08
      165.   Fool them three times or more 00:48  |  Ziggy 24/05/08
      166.   #151 Jim 01:34  |  Chaz 24/05/08
      167.   Is this a jungle or something! 02:33  |  Yeki 24/05/08
      168.   but what if Iran contains nuke and then blocks Strait of Hormuz? 13:05  |  Marco 24/05/08
      169.   Anti-Clickfool, your Vergangenheitsbewaeltigung is showing. 16:27  |  Jake 24/05/08
      170.   An astonishingly stupid repeat performance..... 16:42  |  Johnboy 24/05/08
      171.   Lets bomb Iran 19:26  |  Bobby 24/05/08
      172.   Chris Linthwaite is also a miliary expert 19:49  |  rich 24/05/08
      173.   Is attack 21:40  |  Bwire 24/05/08
      174.   Chris my favourite Bozo #89 21:44  |  FOX 24/05/08
      175.   No risk if it will have people support 01:37  |  Sword of Gideon 25/05/08
      176.   Could someone tell me when Iran 01:46  |  kiwi 25/05/08
      177.   IGNORE THE FOLLOWING FACTS AT YOUR OWN RISK! 06:20  |  Jimmy 25/05/08
      178.   Good news if true But what about Syria, Hizbollah, Hamas? 10:53  |  Shalom Freedman 25/05/08
      179.   #51, royzer re: Natallie & Clickfool... 11:45  |  Silvienne 25/05/08
      180.   no risk at all. 18:35  |  frenz 27/05/08
      181.   Israel should attack Iran now! 19:42  |  Lester Helmus 31/05/08
      182.   to zyggy no big risk for US or IAF to strike Iran 16:06  |  bdbg 05/06/08
      183.   Attack on Iran 17:59  |  Gary 05/06/08
      184.   Attack on Iran Risk 18:25  |  Steve Gure 05/06/08
      185.   An attack is rsiky; Iranian nukes are riskier! 20:27  |  Shlomo 05/06/08
      186.   I can see mushroom clouds over Iran. 21:28  |  ottomatik 05/06/08
      187.   #frenz .. an armchair warrior from UK 16:32  |  American 06/06/08
      188.   U R War mongerers 08:22  |  Arief Contractor 20/06/08
      189.   Stupidity 08:26  |  Jack 20/06/08
      190.   The end of ISRAEL 10:01  |  hassan 20/06/08
      191.   War is not good for any country 14:15  |  Jim Mathews 21/06/08
      192.   is one bin laden not enough 04:59  |  madmoe 22/06/08
      193.   Is an attack on Iran a big risk? 13:11  |  hameed 22/06/08
      194.   LOOOOOOL....Biggest Jike of the Centuary 17:17  |  sohel sahen 01/07/08
      195.   Consequences of Iran Nuke 17:44  |  Bitin Dawg 01/07/08
      196.   Israel attacking Iran 23:51  |  Lisa 01/07/08
      197.   lol/keith 03:34  |  suburban man 02/07/08
      198.   197. Lol ...Keith 12:31  |  TigerPaul 02/07/08
      199.   # 187 `american` 17:51  |  frenz 10/07/08
      200.   To All Those Who Criticise... 18:30  |  Mark B 10/07/08
      201.   do it alone 09:34  |  kelly 11/07/08
      202.   ISRAEL ALREADY HOLDS LEGITIMATE RIGHTS IN ATTACKING IRAN NUKE 03:57  |  glenna 26/07/08
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